I'm sorry if this sound rude, because it does not mean to be, I am merely stating what I understand right now: your position appears to be that "bitcoin does not exist" and your method is to simply repeat this in various forms over and over again, whilst mis-stating the positions that I was careful to lay out (for example, nowhere did I state that I was smarter than Warren Buffett). I am sure you understand why I am not inclined to pursue this discussion, just as I would find it difficult to argue with someone saying the Federal Reserve does not actually own any physical gold, or to have a religious discussion with someone whose position differs from mine and who requires proof that my version is the true version.
It is fundamentally impossible to reach the burden of proof required to satisfy you, because you do not trust any of those who could prove the fact to you or the method of reasoning that arrives to the most likely conclusion (does a DC actually have bitcoin mining rigs in it, or did they set up a bunch of container sized, extremely expensive hardware to wiz about so they could pretend to the technical staff of customers in totally unrelated businesses that they have bitcoin mining rigs, a pretense that would have exactly zero impact on said staff's decisions?).
I thought of a nice anecdote from my trading days that continues in the theme of invisible things. Trichet, the ECB head, was giving a press conference and suddenly the EURUSD plummeted, a very fast and very deep move that I as a junior trader totally did not expect or understand, since he was saying exactly what we expected him to say. I asked my boss, with decades of experience behind him, what the hell just happened. He said "his face, look at it, he's slightly less confident than at the last conference" (implying some monetary easing would be forthcoming). That was it - the impression that the market had of a slight change in the backbone of the head of the ECB was enough to drop a major currency pair by a huge amount, affecting the fate of 500 million people in a very real, physical way. What a weight on that man's shoulders...
Cryptocurrencies rely on herd mentality alone and that is too dangerous for investors.
Unfortunately the Sydney real estate boom is government backed
Hear me out, theoretically cryptocurrencies are less risky than regular currency as they don't suffer the same sovereign risk that normal currencies do - that is the risk that a government essentially goes bust and can't pay out the cash in another currency. Think Zimbabwe dropping 12 zeros from the currency (a very extreme situation).
The technology is sound and I believe will be here to stay in one form or another making a truly global currency that isn't controlled by a single government. However the thing that stops me from investing is the volatility and the speculators. The large majority of bitcoin investors are speculators only, not hedging an offset position in minerals or agriculture or another form of physical commodity. This alone makes bitcoin highly volatile and risky to invest in as there is nothing driving the market except pure speculation that tomorrow bitcoin will be worth more or less than today.
This is one of the less spoken about risks of cryptocurrencies: Exmo Bitcoin exchange chief executive kidnapped in Kiev - BBC News
It's now a race against time to move that exchange's reserves to other wallets, before the chap in question "breaks"...
Obligatory reference: https://xkcd.com/538/
Ego certainly is a stumbling block for some of us!
Well, I can't really convince everybody one way or the other about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
I'll just suggest these points:
Don't invest more than you can afford to lose.
Do your research, don't just get caught up in the hype.
Don't invest in things you don't really understand.
I might weigh in with a different angle again.
In the long term (a decade or so) the ramifications of crypto-currencies (whether block chain based like bitcoin or the dozen or so other alternatives bases such as ethereum, IOTA and others) will be as significant as the shift from gold and other physically based currencies to fiat currency.
Already we are seeing governments and big financial institutions and companies (Accenture, Microsoft, Intel, JPMorgan, UBS, Toyota, Merck and Rabobank, Credit Suisse, ING, Bank of New York and Thomson Reuters and several dozen others) become members of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA). It's getting big and too big for governments and companies to pretend it is a just a technological splash in the pan.
Here in Australia the Australian Tax office in 2014 released guidance stating that cryptocurrencies would not be treated as money but as a commodity and therefore would be taxed similarly to a non-cash barter transaction. Then this year the ATO said it will treat cryprocurrencies as money and they completely reversed their stance: "We will also introduce changes to the GST to ensure that consumers are no longer double taxed when using digital currencies such as bitcoin."
This further entrenches crypto-currencies as being here to stay. It might go up or down, it might even go up or down a bloody long way, like a roller coaster as investors take turns riding the cars. Some will fall off and some will have a thrill of a ride. In the long term we have the potential through this technology (which can't be put back in the bottle) for a stable, international, decentralized currency, regulated to some degree, but not absolutely controllable by any one single government. Whether the world can achieve that will depend on politics and the continued uptake of crypto-currencies by people and companies for legitimate and worthwhile uses.
Ego is stumbling block for having an adult conversation in many online platforms these days, many people cannot see past their own opinion and get angry with people who have opinions which differ to anything but their own. When a person starts to show signs of anger is when I sign off, there is no trying to convince a person of a round earth when they think the earth is clearly flat.
At least Bitcoin is not effecting people in this forum like certain arguments which are taking place around the world, arguments such as a genderless society where learning institutions are pushing agendas which have no basis on science or rational.
My stance on Bitcoin is it is here to stay, just another currency, people mock things they do no understand and this is clearly shown here. Bitcoin could go by way of the dinosaur, this is just my opinion, I could be wrong. As for investing in a currency, well that is always a bad option, Bitcoin is a currency, the Greenback is also a currency but I would not invest in either of them.
Since I was apparently promoting the thing, here is my bear case for the asset class as a whole, and bitcoin especially.
The main attraction of crypto is anonymous irreversible payments (and for some, instant). This is actually surprisingly hard to get elsewhere. Even wire transfers (ACT, or is it SWIFT?) are batched daily. This makes it perfect for terrorist acts. "Pay me quietly now or I do X". The only issue is getting out of your wallet and into hard currency, but that issue disappears if bitcoin is widely used.
A less visible, but easily scalable action is the "tiger kidnapping" - the robber takes the kids hostage and asks the dad to hand over his (electronic) wallet, then pays themselves and disappears untraceably. Does the person even need to have bitcoin, no, because they could just buy some under duress and do the transfer. This means anybody is a target.
Currently this kind of attack is limited by either the amount of cash/valuables you can carry, or the barriers banks and other parts of the financial system put up precisely against these kind of payments. But bitcoin literally enables them like the flip of a switch. You could move $500 million irreversibly in one transaction - for example tiger-ing the half dozen co-signers of an exchange wallet - and the payoff makes it more than worth it to organise something very professional. Hell, even nation states might go for it. Or you can go for the smaller guys, less well protected but cheaper to attack - there are 10.8 million millionaires in the US today. Any of you guys drive a nice car?
This is the justification that will be used for government action - not some token threat to the USD and T-bills. And the US government in particular is not stopped by borders (it is currently militarily deployed in 150 countries) or technical barriers (see Stuxnet, which was amazing and a lot of us thought, science-fiction). It will act enough to limit the growth of any particular currency so that the liquidity for wide scale attacks is simply not there.
And bitcoin's core qualities are not really features for most normal law-abiding people. Anonymity? I'm OK with PayPal knowing I bought some coffee off Andy. Irreversibility? I think PayPal's biggest value add is the ability to open a dispute when you get scammed, and most banks globally will refund you if your card gets stolen and someone goes on a spree (happened to me twice, both times was made whole). Fees? Current bitcoin transaction fees are upwards of $30 and rising.
The other reason not to invest in bitcoin specifically, even if you believe the above are not concerns, is that the winner is not yet decided. When Google entered the market there were something like 5 major search engines and hundreds of people trying. All now-defunct names, like Yahoo or Altavista. At the time they looked unbeatable, but Google made search probabilistic whilst previous attempts were all directories ranked by newness or how much you bribed them. All it takes for bitcoin to die is for a better currency to come about, solving the various issues with BTC today. The exodus from bitcoin to NewCurrency will be similar to that from Yahoo Search to Google. This is also why there are so many "coins" popping up (BitcoinCash, Monero, Ethereum, etc.) and you see lawsuits over hundreds of millions of dollar ICOs.
Finally I agree with Yelta and others that the crypto space has reached all signs of peak bubble: mainstream media headlines, "price is news", people with zero technical background or previous interest enthusiastically bringing it up at dinner or even boasting about their gains (https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...=bitcoin,apple - bitcoin is now a more popular search term than apple!), hundreds of competitors popping up like mushrooms including large (100m+) scams, and so on. So even if I believed in bitcoin in the long term (and I do not), even if I invested in fields outside my deep expertise (and I do not), I wouldn't touch it.
"Legendary investor Warren Buffett has weighed in on the bitcoin frenzy, saying he will never invest in it or any other cryptocurrencies - while predicting a "bad ending" for those who do."
Warren Buffett says cryptocurrencies will 'almost certainly come to a bad ending'
Bitcoin! last close US$ 11943, where to now?
Depreciating 2.5 cents worth ... I think that the best piece of Latin I know and understand I is caveat emptor .... it is after all your own choices based on known and accepted consequences .... if you choose to buy and make good ... happy for you .... buy and not achieve your goals ... happy for you .....
'All the hallmarks of a classic speculative bubble'
Bitcoin will not replace national currencies and cryptocurrency prices are in one of the biggest bubbles in history, which is set to burst, warn analysts from Capital Economics.
Bitcoin 'bubble' prices 'have a lot further to fall', Capital Economics analysts warn - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
When prices go up they give space to the bulls. When prices go down they give space to the bears.
I think saying there is no intrinsic value in cryptocurrencies is misguided but then that's what they're paid to say. There will always be a need for "cash" (anonymous untraceable currency) even if normal people prefer government-backed currencies.
Still, a lot of work needs to be done on usability. Aside from using it as a store of value for large amounts, who wants to lug around TB-sized blockchains and wait days for transactions to clear?
Yelta, if you want to have fun look up BitConnect. They created a token, had it only tradeable on their exchange, then shut down the exchange keeping everybody's money. The literal definition of a Ponzi scheme. One of the guys involved: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIL9wLxG01M
Bitcoin Price Today: Live Bitcoin price updates for Thursday, February 1
Bitcoin has hit a new 2018 low today, with its price sitting at well under $10,000 at start of play Ė at 10am GMT, it was barely over the $9565 mark, and by lunch, it had plummeted to under $9200. Thereís been a slight recovery since, with the coin clearing the $9300 mark again, but itís still very worrying stuff."
That's a drop of over 50% in approx 6 weeks.
Wonder how many who bought at the top had stop losses in place" I would imagine most of em are like a rabbit in a spot light, frozen, unable to move, hanging in waiting for a miracle to happen.
There is no question a down trend is in place, who knows where buyers may step in (if ever) to provide a bit of support.
Bitcoin Price Today: Live updates as Bitcoin plunges to new 2018 lows
Amazing, you can literally see the three big sell-offs from insiders during the final pump and dump.
Bit of a head and shoulders look.
How much volume has gone through in Jan?
The shoeshine boys have been talking Bitcoin for the past 18 months.
(FORTUNE Magazine) – JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash:
"Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929."
A good friend of mine invested a fair bit of capital in Bitcoin back in 10/11, his return paid off the houses of his 3 children.
Personally I do not see bitcoin going anywhere, it is just returning to some normality after the initial investment craze, people always want the fast track to financial security these days.
""Bitcoin is in trouble," Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at foreign exchange broker Forextime, wrote in a note Friday. "Price action suggests that bears are clearly in control, with further losses on the cards as jitters over regulation erode investor appetite further."
Bitcoin whipsaws investors as 'mother of all bubbles' shows signs of bursting
Eh, anybody who invested in it who couldn't afford to take the risk shouldn't have done so, just like any other investment.
A bubble it may be but the bottom line is that it's worth whatever people are willing to pay for it. Most fiat currencies these days are completely "virtual" in any case, insofar as there's nothing backing them either. So that is an irrelevance.
I remember there was a prediction back in late 2016(?) That BTC was doomed after the SEC refused to list a bitcoin ETF, price went down from $1200 to $900 and back up to $1200 (and kept rising IIRC) within a day.
Sure we're talking orders of magnitude now (It's still nearly 800% of what it was at that time), and there is evidence of market tampering (certainly wouldn't be the first time somebody's tampered with a market) but again, if you can't afford the risk you shouldn't be taking it.
Oh, random fun anecdote.
Sometime back in the early days of BTC there was a guy who was getting 10BTC coins minted, and selling them for ~$30USD a piece (Price of BTC at the time was sub $1USD, but they were 99.9% silver coins), the coins had a wallet address and the private key printed on them (the private key was covered by a sticker). At the time he gave several of them out as tips at restaurants (In the US, where they don't pay their wait staff a decent wage so a $30USD tip is reasonable), which means that some waitress (probably a few in fact) somewhere has a coin rolling around in a drawer at home which is now worth $90k USD.
The way I see is if you made money like my friend you will be in awe of Bitcoin but if you missed the boat you will be screaming to the rooftops a bubble and its demise.
"Trader reveals the BIG event THIS WEEK that could make bitcoin SOAR" or could it be a dead cat bounce.
Had to smile at this, from a trader no less I'm sure bitcoin will rally again and the clever traders will pocket some more cash, traders love to pump and dump.
Bit of a pragmatic look at things...
I've noticed the news bulletins broadcasting significant drops on the ASX today and the US stock exchange last week with the ASX losing approx 20 billion dollars? of it's overall value today... It doesn't matter if you are investing in Bitcoin or any other stock that kind of drop is gunna hurt you.
The old saying of don't invest what you can't afford to lose completely is true...
In this case it doesn't matter whether you are investing on the stock exchange or not these type of losses if sustained will eventually hurt everybody investors or not.
Having said that, whilst the ASX has had it's worst day in six months and the U.S. market worst in 2 years we can note that the stock exchanges have been rising, at times rapidly without much evidence of sustainability so hopefully the downward is a trend that will not continue...Then again no one knows when it comes to forecasting what the markets will do.
Maybe bitcoin is unstainstable at the highs we've seen it at recently, maybe it will keep at today's prices then again maybe it will fade away into insignificance like we have seen in the dotcom boom etc. It's all the fun of being involved in the stock market and this hasn't changed.
Some people make a good living on the stock market some people lose everything they own. If you are thinking about trying to make a living out of investing in the stock market then due diligence applies...Just like investing in business...Don't get caught by things looking very attractive with out fully considering the downsides because at times, chances are, you are going to get hurt, it's hard and never going to be easy...
Like Steve Jobs once said if you are going into business...Make sure you love what you're going into because it's hard....Makes sense to me....
Rant finished:0....For now ...
Hmmmm, where did you get your crystal ball Yelta? I want one!!
as at 07.45AWST - 1 bitcoin = $6,754USD. It's raining dead cats.
But you can predict what's going to happen in Dec 2018? That's called fortune telling!
The link below is well worth a look if you have an interest in the market.
"Everyone saw this coming. Stock markets donít go up forever. Markets often go down, occasionally spectacularly. Trumpís constant insistence on the strength of the markets being a positive reflection of his presidency meant that, inevitably, it would be noted when the markets dropped significantly. His political opponents easily teed up. A no-brainer."
"Good time to recall that in the previous administration, we NEVER boasted about the stock market ó even though the Dow more than doubled on Obama's watch ó because we knew two things: 1) the stock market is not the economy; and 2) if you claim the rise, you own the fall.
ó Jay Carney (@JayCarney) February 5, 2018"