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Bean pricing into 2022 looks higher according to news report 30% higher in a week

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  • Bean pricing into 2022 looks higher according to news report 30% higher in a week

    Was reading this topic about a 7 year high. Perhaps this may be of interest to buy now or maybe just ignore the fear being pushed. Who knows.
    Read it here: https://insidefmcg.com.au/2021/07/27...even-year-high
    Perhaps Andy has some more insights.
    Last edited by allinone; 28 July 2021, 09:12 PM. Reason: added p to pricing in topicline

  • #2
    My freezer has 12 kilos of vacuum sealed 800g bags of my favourite green beans. However the media love a good "the sky is falling in" story and somehow I've never run out of coffee. It does sound like a price increase of some sort though. Andy thoughts would be on the money so I'm also interested.

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    • #3
      Why have you frozen your green beans?

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      • tompoland
        tompoland commented
        Editing a comment
        So they keep fresh until I'm ready to roast them.

    • #4
      Originally posted by amberale View Post
      Why have you frozen your green beans?
      Most likely to extend shelf life

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      • #5
        Keep your greens in a cool dry place, no need to freeze.?

        Comment


        • amberale
          amberale commented
          Editing a comment
          I figure the wine cellar should be ideal.

        • WhatEverBeansNecessary
          WhatEverBeansNecessary commented
          Editing a comment
          Agree - green beans kept cool, dark and dry should last a couple of years easily. Probably more before losing any real flavour. Keeping them in the freezer is likely to introduce moisture changes by drawing it in/out of the bean and wouldn't be ideal.

        • tompoland
          tompoland commented
          Editing a comment
          Sure. But they keep longer still when frozen. Also finding cold storage outside a fridge is not easy to find where I am.

      • #6
        Of more immediate concern is the Tigray war in Ethiopia going on since 2020 and it's effect on supply and prices on beans from there.
        We usually 6+ choices in Beanbay but currently four. Not complaining, just concerned for the welfare of the country already dealing with the pandemic and, selfishly, the welfare of my bean stash.

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        • #7
          Timely post. I was about to purchase some Ethiopia Sidamo Ardi Naturals and saw the price is now $18.5 per kg. It was around $14.5 per kg last time I purchased it. Just under 30% increase. Andy said the price increase was due to the increase costs resulting from Covid.

          Comment


          • Andy
            Andy commented
            Editing a comment
            "covid airfreight" - not covid but freight problems caused by covid

        • #8
          The frosts in Brasil will mostly affect next year's crop due to damage to initiation of next year's flower buds, which is happening now. It's not the only cause of the price increase. Climate change, the prolonged pandemic, political/social unrest in producing countries and increased speculation on the commodity market are all combining with the weather in Brasil to put sustained pressure on the C price. Even though the specialty green coffee market runs somewhat independently of the C price when it (the C price) is low, when it is high, things become more volatile. In order for suppliers of cherry or parchment to fulfil forward contracts at the moment, there is fierce competition for supply. This means that a farmer or co-op, who usually sell into the specialty market for a higher price, may choose to supply into the commodity market at a higher than normal price as much less work has to be done to process and market the beans, resulting in a similar margin and if workers (think picking of ripe unripe cherry and sorting of parchment) are in short supply due to covid or unrest then it might be the easier option. Agricultural product prices always wax and wane but with the new pressure of climate change reducing suitable growing conditions and the pandemic, however that plays out, it's unlikely that specialty prices will be significantly lower than what they are now, in the future.

          Comment


          • flynnaus
            flynnaus commented
            Editing a comment
            * Oops, this was meant to be a comment on Yelta's post #9.*
            It depends on what you're buying and what you consider to be significant but I looked at several of my invoices from 12 years ago and was paying on average around $10 per kg whereas recent average prices are around the $12-13 mark. That's a 25% increase over 12 years if you accept my estimates but there are other factors at play.
            The main thing is that I'm more than happy with the quality and price of Beanbay beans.

          • WhatEverBeansNecessary
            WhatEverBeansNecessary commented
            Editing a comment
            25% over 12 years is very reasonable, at just over 2% growth per year (non compound growth). Inflation over that same period was about 27% ish. So it's 'sort of' costing us less per kg than 12 years ago, at least in real terms. Just goes to show the service Andy provides to CS members is unbelievable and thanks to the growth + some other things Andy has kept prices down (as mentioned in his post below).

            And agree the quality/range seems to only get better and bigger! Very happy with the price and service.

            Thanks Andy!

        • #9
          BeanBay prices are still very reasonable, they haven't increased significantly in the 12 years I've been buying from Andy.?

          Comment


          • Andy
            Andy commented
            Editing a comment
            Correct. With CoffeeSnobs perpetual growth we have the benefit of landing in larger quantities every year and selling at landed cost means CS'rs have been sheltered from the price movements.

            Buying bigger and freighting more at once means we all get amazing quality for the dollar.

        • #10

          The linked article is about commodity pricing on the futures index which is floor-sweepings grade compared to what you find in BeanBay.

          Commodity grades fluctuate a lot in price as someone at a desk in New York or London shuffle paper but most good coffee pricing is calculated on a multiple of the "C index" and the better the coffee, the higher the multiple it gets.

          30% on the "C" doesn't always multiply as 30% on specialty as the margin on farmers better coffees is higher and can sometimes absorb fluctuations but eventually it does go up.

          Frost in Brazil, wharf strikes in Colombia, pandemic in India (and the rest of the planet) all has an effect and the coffees we have landed this year are all more expensive.

          The Indian Elephant we just landed was taken to port 3 times before it was allocated container space, the Yemen was similar and then had to sail in the wrong direction and move to different ships. All that extra handling costs someone and gets passed down the line.

          Freight is the biggest add-on at the moment, the world shipping mafia (all the major shipping companies raise their prices within a day of each other) have increased pricing many times in the last 12 months and sourcing container space is getting very expensive.

          Food-grade containers are hard to get at coffee origins that don't import enough stuff as shipping companies don't want to move empty containers. Covid adds to that problem with less income, less spending, less importing and the vicious circle of not being able to export to get paid.

          The Ardi pricing mentioned above was more more expensive at origin but most of the increase was the difference between air freight and sea freight. We had to fly that one to get it.

          Unlike your local petrol station, we don't charge more for the coffee that we have already landed but if the replacement is more expensive when it lands our price has to move with it.

          Expect everything to be more expensive and you'll be right most the time.

          Oh and it's off-topic for this thread but cold, dark dry and stored in our natural cotton bags is good green bean storage for many years.

          Comment


          • tompoland
            tompoland commented
            Editing a comment
            Very interesting thanks.

        • #11
          What's going to be really depressing is where there's some real scarcity issues, or climate change ruins everything and coffee won't be readily available
          that's depressing

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          • #12
            I do like this quote:

            Surry Hills specialty coffee suppliers Single O announced a 50¢ increase in the price of their regular cup of coffee on March 1, but general manager Mike Barbant said he saw the move "not as a price rise, but an opportunity to be transparent about the price of a cup of coffee".
            https://www.goodfood.com.au/eat-out/...0220318-h22i26

            Ummm.....I think it's still a price rise (however justifiable)....these things are not mutually exclusive.

            Comment


            • WWWifi
              WWWifi commented
              Editing a comment
              Fantastic Link, enjoyed the read very much, Thanks BOS For me, this underscores more than ever how home roasting and the investment of great espresso machines and grinders are really good ideas

          • #13
            interesting. thanks

            Comment


            • bradf
              bradf commented
              Editing a comment
              yep haven't been on here for a long time, about to sell my machine, thought someone on here may get more from it than putting it on marketplace etc

            • Andy
              Andy commented
              Editing a comment
              Yeah that's the sell (we all knew that was coming), but what did you find interesting in this thread that deserved a thanks to someone?

            • bradf
              bradf commented
              Editing a comment
              where to store green beans. cost of oil will also be a bitch

          • #14
            Media is picking up on takeaway coffee increases too. Expecting more of this in the coming months.

            https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/food-...-c-6158442.amp

            The article harks back to the times of $3.50 a cup to now seeing $5.00 a cup and expecting $6-$7... Even at $3.50 it's more than a 40% increase.

            This can't all be coffee prices though. General inflation means milk is going up, takeaway cup prices, rents, not to mention the cafe owners (who are still around) are trying to get businesses back on their feet after covid lockdowns.

            I think I've just justified my new machine upgrade in my head.

            Comment


            • WhatEverBeansNecessary
              WhatEverBeansNecessary commented
              Editing a comment
              Milk auction references prices have also risen since late 2021 from around 1300 to 1600 - up around 18%, so milk is also getting more expensive on the global scale.
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