Are we going through the recession we might have to have, in the could-be words of former prime minister Paul Keating who infamously presided over our last one in 1990?
The truth is, we cannot know until sometime in February at the earliest.
It takes 2 consecutive 3-month periods (quarters) to define a recession. Four of them, and we have a depression.
So....we narrowly escaped a negative June quarter. If we are negative this current September quarter we won't know until the GDP figures are released around October-November.
If it's a negative print, we need the December quarter to also be negative to qualify as a recession.
And those figures won't come out until around February.
So enjoy the alleged boom times like a drunk for now and hope you don't wake up with a hangover in five months.
The truth is, we cannot know until sometime in February at the earliest.
It takes 2 consecutive 3-month periods (quarters) to define a recession. Four of them, and we have a depression.
So....we narrowly escaped a negative June quarter. If we are negative this current September quarter we won't know until the GDP figures are released around October-November.
If it's a negative print, we need the December quarter to also be negative to qualify as a recession.
And those figures won't come out until around February.
So enjoy the alleged boom times like a drunk for now and hope you don't wake up with a hangover in five months.


Comment