Bimillennial Member Contest

[Thundergod]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

Congratulations to all.

Why didnt I think to use my birthday (today)?
I could have been a runner up.

So whose picking the date for 3000?

I already have.

I dont think Ill get anywhere near to winning.
What with all the lurkers coming out of the woodwork when the contest was announced.

Can my guess stand as is for the 3000th member contest?

[thegoodies]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

I averaged out members joining per day over the last month, this worked out to be 5.2 members per day. Then took away 2000 from the current number of members and divided 5.2 into this. This told me how many days to add onto the current day and this worked out to be the 18th.

I didnt realise I was any good at maths or maybe Im not and just got lucky. Any which way I won a prize which Im stoked about. I never usually win anything. YIPPEE!

[JavaB]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

1000 was on 22/05/06 with 2000 on 18/02/07

and at the start of 2005 there were only 204 members....

We are growing rapidly.... and an ever increasing rate ;D

[nunu]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

So what was the time difference between the first and second thousand members?

[Javaphile]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

Java, I plotted all the way from 1st Jan 2005 :

And even plotted the rate of change of change for the period up to the start date:

Aint maths fun ;D ;D

Yeah, I originally plotted all the way back to day one but I found I got the smoothest curve plotting for only the previous year.

Plotting from day one yielded a date of mid March for 2,000.


Java "Fun with numbers" phile

[Javaphile]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

Now why did we have to have so many members join on some days!!!

The rate of increase was supposed to go from 3.57 per day to 4.5 per day just before the 2000 th......

But those few days with 10 new members......

We also had days where there were no new members. It all averages out in the end.

So whose picking the date for 3000?

Java "No, no, no! Im still clearing my desk from this contest!" phile

[JavaB]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

In brief I plotted the previous year of membership numbers and then used the 2nd derivative to plot the prediction curve.


Java "Yes, Math really does work!" phile

Java, I plotted all the way from 1st Jan 2005 :

And even plotted the rate of change of change for the period up to the start date:

Aint maths fun ;D ;D

[thegoodies]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

2nd Runner Up, COOL!!!! Thanks a lot CS and the Sponsors Veneziano Caffe & Gilkatho Online

Now all I got to do is decide which sized Tamper (I have got the Breville 800ES with Crema Enhancer baskets, I think this is 52mm but if I get a non pressurized basket will the 53mm Tamper fit????? I think the portafilter is 53mm.) Can anyone help with solving this????

[JavaB]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

Congrats to all the winners....

Now why did we have to have so many members join on some days!!!

The rate of increase was supposed to go from 3.57 per day to 4.5 per day just before the 2000 th......

But those few days with 10 new members......

So whose picking the date for 3000?

[nunu]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

I just guessed mate. :P

[Javaphile]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

Ill remember to talk to you both when I want a medium range prediction of something. . .

In brief I plotted the previous year of membership numbers and then used the 2nd derivative to plot the prediction curve.

I posted the resulting graph earlier in a discussion on here about our rate of growth but with-out the labels so no one could use it for the contest. Heres the graph with its labels intact.


Java "Yes, Math really does work!" phile

[nunu]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

Dont forget JavaB. He was #3 and was a day behind me.

[grendel]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

Ill remember to talk to you both when I want a medium range prediction of something. . .

[nunu]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

I was the second entry and I picked the 21st.

Congrats to all who won.

[Javaphile]

Re: Bimillennial Member Contest

Yall are just lucky that Mods werent eligible to win. ;D

My calculations nailed the time of the 2,000th member to with-in a few hours of the actual time. Stupid me though forgot that all my datapoints and hence all the calculations were in my local time and I failed to convert the result to CS time (17 hours/a day ahead of me)! :-[ Had I done so and been eligible to win guess who would have taken home the Grand Prize. ;D Even with-out doing the time conversion it was good enough for 3rd Runner-up as it was entered a month and a half prior to the winners entry.


Java "Sometimes I amaze even myself!" phile