This is part of an article dated last month which can be found in full here: http://www.teaandcoffee.net/0805/world.htm
Brazil - CONAB, the National Supply Company, connected with the Ministry of Agriculture, released the 2nd official estimate of the Brazilian 2005/06 coffee crop.
The estimate was the result of a field survey made by 243 agronomists and technicians covering all the principal coffee growing areas of the producing States. Interviewing growers, Cooperatives, Rural Associations and agriculture assistance companies to verify the growth and development of the cherries after the flowering last year.
This 2nd estimate of the 2005/06 crop at 32.457 million bags does not differ greatly from the 1st estimate released in December/04, which averaged 31.873 million bags. In comparison with the final estimate for the 2004/05 crop at 38.667 million bags, the 2005/06 crop shows a drop of 16.1%, which is largely due to the bi-annual cycle of coffee cultivation particularly for Arabica areas and also unseasonal dry weather in some growing areas.
Arabica production shows a drop between the two crops from 31.110 million bags to 23.261 million bags, or 25.2%. In comparison, Robusta production shows an increase from 7.557 million bags to 9.196 million bags or plus 21.7%. (emphasis mine)
Arabica beans account for about 70% of the coffee sold from what I can see and with 120 million bags of coffee sold from the 2004/05 season arabica would have accounted for 84 million of those bags. That means that last year Brazil accounted for almost 40% of the worlds supply of Arabica beans. Remove 25% of Brazils Arabica crop and you drop the worlds supply by 10%.
From a different article (http://www.dailyfutures.com/softs/):
On June 10, 2005, the USDA predicted that world 2005-2006 ending coffee stocks will drop 6.3 million bags to 14.9 million 60-kg. bags or 13% of annual use, the lowest in over two decades. World production is estimated at 113.1 million bags with 119.4 million bags of implied total use.
Hhhmmm....Does anyone else see coffee prices going up?
Java "Or is it just me?" phile