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Thread: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol.

  1. #1
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    Any Idea Why

    Gene Cafe Coffee Roaster $850 - Free Beans Free Freight
    http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/commodities/11705/twelve_month.stm

  2. #2
    Super Moderator Javaphile's Avatar
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    Re: Any Idea Why

    The entrance of several big players into the coffee business (Dunkin Donuts and McDonalds are two), increased transportation costs, and the falling dollar are three causes that immediately spring to mind.


    Java "Time to stock up, now!" phile

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Mikyds has been a Player for years , Dont know much about the size of Dunkin Donuts in the Market Place? The Northern Peso sure is taking a Hammering, ? How much of the Worlds coffee supply does the US Take? - 20%..


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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Tepin,

    A quick Google search shows America is the worlds largest consumer of coffee.... consuming 1140 million Kg per year..... or about 26% of the worlds production...

    So American demand would have a HUGE impact on price!!

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Quote Originally Posted by TEPIN link=1203941100/0#2 date=1204024767
    Mikyds has been a Player for years , Dont know much about the size of Dunkin Donuts in the Market Place? The Northern Peso sure is taking a Hammering, ? How much of the Worlds coffee supply does the US Take? - 20%..
    While Micky Ds has been a player for years their involvement has been in lower grade coffees. They are only now getting into the higher grade coffees in any sizable amount.

    I know that Micky Ds has been serving their premium coffees in Oz for some time now. Such is not the case in the US. It appears that they used the Aussie market as a testing grounds for their new premium coffees before releasing them on the US populace. Micky Ds premium coffees only became available here in the US about 6 months ago, and Ive still yet to hear of any of their stores selling espresso drinks.

    Dunkin Donuts is now selling their coffee to take home and brew. Not just from their donut shops but in grocery stores as well, and theyve launched a national advertising campaign to kick off sales.

    3/4s of the beans imported to the US are arabica. While a quarter of the worlds total coffee production goes to the US, a third of the worlds arabica supply ends up in the US. Any increase in demand for more arabica beans (most of the new offerings here are advertised as 100% arabica) in the US will have a disproportionate effect on the already tight arabica bean market/prices.

    I dont know about the rest of you but Im doing a major restocking now before the big price increases hit with the arrival of the spring harvest in a couple of months.


    Java "Ordering up a pile O beans" phile

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    From my perspective as a trader, coffee has been in a serious bull market (Up Trend) since beginning of 2002, when the price of coffee reached a low of $42 (USD) now fetching $158 per contract

    These changes arent recent

    Robert

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Quote Originally Posted by happyfeet link=1203941100/0#5 date=1204153195
    From my perspective as a trader, coffee has been in a serious bull market (Up Trend) since beginning of 2002, when the price of coffee reached a low of $42 (USD) now fetching $158 per contract

    These changes arent recent

    Robert
    While it is true that rising coffee prices are nothing new after tanking in 2001/2002, the market is again spiking upward similar to what was seen after Katrina.

    In the last 9 months coffee has gone from just over $100 in May of last year too over $160 just a few days ago. Thats an increase of 60% in 9 months with half of the increase coming with-in the last month.

    These changes are indeed new and will soon be reflected in the resale marketplace. Importers and wholesalers here are already starting to raise their prices with most that Ive talked to recently expecting to see price increases of around 30% for the spring deliverys.

    Wholesalers here are already seeing the effect in their warehouses as people place orders now to avoid the big increases coming down the pike. Several of the importers Ive talked too with-in the last week reported shortages of many popular beans with no more expected in until the spring deliverys hit the ports.

    So in short, expect to see some pretty significant price increases coming soon to an importer near you! :(


    Java "Stocking up!" phile

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    I have heard a bit of perfectly sensible speculation that coffee futures have been driven up by people wanting to put their money in something other than the stock market.

    Personally, I think that its about bloody time that coffee prices rose across the board. Im happy to pay decent prices for green as long as the quality is there. Lets face it, if you value your time at a relatively miserly wage, youre not saving much, if anything, by roasting coffee at home.

    Cheers,

    Luca

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    I thought coffee futures WAS on the stock market.

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    I have attached a snapshot of the chart of coffee price from 1996 to 2008

    What do you think is the change in coffee price in last 12 months? What do you think will happen in the next few months?
    Javaphile I think that we can both agree that coffee is getting very expensive recently

    Robert

    MODS: please delete this chart, its too big to get proper perspective


    Chart removed as per request - Javaphile

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Im sorry the chart is too big, try this one


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    Re: Any Idea Why

    This chart is easier to see,

    Mods would you please delete the previous image

    As you can see from the chart it is not unusual for the price of coffee to rise very high at various periods in recent history.

    So what does it mean? I really dont have much idea, I just try to buy it when it is going up, but surely it reflects the overall supply and demand factors in both coffee production and consumption. Others on this board probably know more about why specifically

    Robert

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    And Thundergod

    There is a real difference between the commodity market and the stock market, though they are both trading markets.

    In the stock market people are actually buying shares in a company and becoming shareholders of that company with voting rights etc.

    In the futures market, though it is bit artificial, people are buying and selling the actual commodity such as coffee, and at the future expiry date of the contract they end up with a very large sack of coffee beans

    And Luca are people leaving the stock market to buy coffee futures? I have no idea how you find out, Though certainly speculators and traders do invest in these markets as well as the actual commercial producers and suppliers. Any way, I would want to be a speculator in the coffee market at this time :D

    robert

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Cool, I feel all the more smarter after this economics lesson. :) Thanks for the info guys.

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Having taken my own advice heres what arrived on my doorstep Friday. :) :) :)


    Java "Set for a few months" phile


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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Just out of interest Java where do you get your beans ?

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Quote Originally Posted by martybean link=1203941100/15#15 date=1204524089
    Just out of interest Java where do you get your beans ?
    Im in the US and so dont have access to the wonder of BeanBay. Up until this order I had been getting my beans from a high end specialty roaster a few kms away at a very nice price. With the tightening of their bean supply and the increasing cost to replace existing stocks they decided to stop selling greens. Although there are plenty of other specialty roasters here none of them had the high end beans with one exception, and he wanted way too much. (Damn yuppies with more cents than sense!) There is a bean importer here but they wont deal with anybody other than commercial roasters and pallet sized lots.

    So I turned to my favorite research source and did some digging on the net and turned up a source of high end beans out in the middle of nowhere a few hours driving from here. I rang them up to check pricing and availability and then placed the order with the intention of driving up to get it to save on shipping costs. I was very surprised when they offered to ship the beans to me for less than it would have cost me to drive ($USD50) up there and have them to me in 2 days. The final price on the beans worked out to be just over $USD8/kg, almost exactly what I had been paying.

    I ended up getting a bit over 110kgs of Costa Rica Tres Rios, Guatemala Antigua, Indian Mysore Nuggets Extra Bold, Kenya AA Tembo, Nicaragua Jinotega Rainforest Alliance La Bastilla, Papua New Guinea A Kimel Estate, Rwandan Ingoboka Coop Bourbon, Sulawasi Torajaland, Sumatra Mandheling Tiger, Tanzania Peaberry, and Organic Ethiopian Yirgacheffe. Hopefully itll be enough to last me at least a few months. ::) ;D


    Java "Sitting on his pile o beans" phile

  18. #18
    Sleep is overrated Thundergod's Avatar
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    Re: Any Idea Why

    The PNG Kimel is my staple at the moment and I use the expression "more dollars than sense".

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Quote Originally Posted by Thundergod link=1203941100/15#17 date=1204542704
    The PNG Kimel is my staple at the moment and I use the expression "more dollars than sense".
    Yup, I like the Kimel as well. A very nummy bean. Its one of my old favorites that I was able to grab with the order. :)

    Most people do use "more dollars than sense" but given my fondness for word play I tend to go with cents. It smells better to me. ::) ;D


    Java "Smelling up the place" phile

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    Thats a good supply Java like the Png kimel too

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    Re: Any Idea Why

    This was something I used to reply to a specific question about coffee prices rising and farmers being paid more, but I thought it would be fitting here. Ive edited it to be les of an answer but its early and a teething 7 month old prevented me from my morning coffee today.

    Coffee price rises are cyclic. They have been going up for 6-8 years and probably have another 5 year rise. Then they will start to fall. This is nothing new. Typically the rise and fall of coffee prices affect cheaper beans more than top end beans. Most of my beans have only risen 10c / kilo over the last 5 years, because I am using excellent coffees and ethically produced stuff. Unfortunaly the farm workers are not affected too much from the price fluctuation.

    What happens at the moment is as prices rise, so to does quality. This is because the farmers have more money to spend on production. The rise in quality drives the price up more as well as allowing smaller farms to become world traders. In the next 5 years the market will saturate and there will be more production than demand for beans. Farmers will drop there prices in order to move crops, and as the price goes down so too will quality. As the quality drops, so to will production from a number of smaller farms. As price drops, so too will demand increase until the cycle bottoms out and starts all over again.

    What is interesting about this cycle is the following:
    1) specialty beans are far less susceptable to the cycle than cheap commercial rubbish.
    2) Price fixing schemes like Fair Trade(not starting a seperate debate here) will see less money go to the farmer than should be in a price rising time.

    That said, coffee prices are all about demand Vs quality. A high quality bean which is sought after will remain high priced at all times. A perfect example of this is the Brazil Daterra. This plantation co-op has proven it is only quality that can position your plantation in the right price bracket. 10 years ago when the last cycle was at its trough they decided to be a major player in the specialty market. The average farmer on these plantations earns 300% the average farming wage in Brazil. They care more, the bean improves, more people want it, it fetches more money. Simple economics of quality.

  22. #22
    Super Moderator Javaphile's Avatar
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    Re: Any Idea Why

    While it is true that high end beans are generally less affected by price swings in the marketplace, prices for them are on the rise here.

    Something else to take into consideration is the exchange rate. With the falling US Dollar, price increases seen here are not necessarily seen to the same degree (or at all) in other countries.


    Java "Making like Scrat and stashing his beans" phile



    *stomp*stomp*stomp* Oops! :-/

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    CoffeeSnobs Owner Andy's Avatar
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    Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol.

    Well every bean broker I have spoken to in the last month is in a flap. *

    The commodity indexes that nearly all world prices are based off (including our suppliers) are going through the roof at the moment, highest in 12 years and the forecast for December futures are around the 190 mark. *The suspected cause includes the US property thump and lower value of the US$, both cause investors to look somewhere else and the soft resource sector is the one they are heading for.

    The bad news is that just like the banks and oil companies that charge the new price for money they already had or for the petrol that was already in the tanks, the bean brokers are all passing the rises on to us (regardless of their stock holdings). *Average pricing increases are $0.50-$.80 so it wont be long till that flows down the chain to the cup of coffee in a cafe too.

    FYI, the below image is pricing for the last month...




    The good news is that Thundergods 78kg stash is now worth $60 more and rising.
    ;)

    The below image shows the previous 12 months data.




  24. #24
    Super Moderator Javaphile's Avatar
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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Yup, prices are on the rise. Weve been discussing this in another thread over the last couple of weeks. Ill splice that thread onto here to bring it all together in one spot. :)


    Java "All stocked up!" phile

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Quote Originally Posted by Javaphile link=1204776460/0#1 date=1204778647
    Yup, prices are on the rise. Weve been discussing this in another thread over the last couple of weeks. Ill splice that thread onto here to bring it all together in one spot. :)
    Java "All stocked up!" phile
    Thanks Java, I missed the other thread due to a cryptic subject I think (I do now wonder just how many of the 90,000+ previous posts I have missed?).

    I was posting it because broker here ARE putting prices up. The 150 mark is the point where all those with forward contracts get twitchy and most Australian broker pricing I have seen in the last month has had seemingly random price rises of AU 50-80 cents.

    What is interesting is that the prices are only for IMPORTED beans that trade out of NY and London. The positive for our local coffee growers is the chance their product pricing gap will narrow and as a result might become more viable in cafes?!?!


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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    I did mention this in the thread previously, before it was moved - But Fairtrade is not a fixed price contract. Please investigate and learn about the trade system before making sweeping claims about it.


    Edit: If I do seem to get annoyed about this sometimes, its due to a lot of rumor and misinformation flying around, with no credible sources. Things like this can really hurt a movement like Fairtrade. As I said previously, its not perfect. No system is - But at least its a step in the right direction and one that is doing more good than harm. Rather than criticising those trying to make a difference, suggest ways in which the system can be improved :)

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Freeman link=1204776460/0#0 date=1204776460
    ... average pricing increases are $0.50-$.80 so it wont be long till that flows down the chain to the cup of coffee in a cafe too.
    Most possibly, but not the sole justifiable reason for an operator to rise price ...

    90% Oz coffee drinkers have milk - that being the bulk of their chosen beverage. Drought (1), inflated fuel costs meaning increased cost of transportation (2), means the (current & rising) price of MILK is probably equally, if not more, a concern with cafe owners when considering when to impose a price hike on to the punter.

    I getta heluva lot more shots from a kg of beans, than I get an equal return from a litre of milk!

    Lets contextualise for a mo ...
    Tony

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Quote Originally Posted by benipk link=1204776460/15#25 date=1204889288
    I did mention this in the thread previously, before it was moved - But Fairtrade is not a fixed price contract. Please investigate and learn about the trade system before making sweeping claims about it.
    Comment retracted

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    I guess there has to be a flow on affect right across the board when basic commodities are on the rise, transport and other primary expenses have all risen, so the $64 question is: Where does it all end, Ill tell you, its when the trumpet sounds and we are called from the four corners of the earth.

    ponder about it, its of extreme importance......... Ray.

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    CoffeeSnobs Owner Andy's Avatar
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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol


    Quote Originally Posted by benipk link=1204776460/15#25 date=1204889288
    I did mention this in the thread previously, before it was moved - But Fairtrade is not a fixed price contract. Please investigate and learn about the trade system before making sweeping claims about it.
    Sigh...
    Fairtrade CAN BE A FIXED PRICED CONTRACT and most often is.
    Back at ya -- "Please investigate and learn about the trade system before making sweeping claims about it."

    Ben, please keep the FT discussions to the other thread that you are posting in at the moment. It becomes hard to follow the multiple postings in multiple threads.


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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Can some knowledgeable person please explain to the rest of us how commodity coffee prices affect specialty coffee prices? Also, with the rising value of the $AUS, shouldnt this put downward pressure on prices? Id also be very interested to know how exposed farmers are to this kind of speculation. I think we probably all have an interest in these questions.

    Thanks,
    matt

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    CoffeeSnobs Owner Andy's Avatar
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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    It’s not something that is easily explained in a couple of lines of text but here goes...

    Nearly all coffee including specialty coffee pricing is based off the two coffee market indexes. *Arabica is based off the New York Board of Trade - NYBOT (or now under the banner of Intercontinental Exchange, ICE) and Robusta off the London Commodities Exchange -LCE.

    High quality specialty coffee is bought and sold at a premium over the current market pricing, and rubbish coffee is bought and sold at a premium under the current market price.

    Bean price movements affect the futures pricing of the beans, most coffee is traded before the crops have even produced a cherry so traders speculate on what a articular grade of coffee will be worth in the future and make an offer to suit. *Often their offers are based on the number of points above the actual future price for specialty coffee.

    Eg: a crop due for harvest in June might be offered at 30 points above NYC. *Today at 160 that would be a 190 price, high but manageable. *If the price in June is 220 and the buyer was contracted for 100 ton at 30 points above then the price would be 250 and the buyer had to pay 30% more for the coffee than he wanted to. *The buyer then has to sell the coffee locally, and has to raise the price to cover the difference. *

    As for the AU$... it has risen with the C-index but is has now settled its climb at < US$0.95 while the C-index continues to rise. We should have copped price hikes a couple of months ago but the strong AU$ sheltered us from it... but alas, no longer.

    Farmer exposure? *Very high! *The biggest problem is that if prices go too high the volume goes down (as seen in the initial post image) and while the farmers appear to be getting a great price they wont get the same volume of new orders until buyers know they can sell it at a higher price. *

    Like more traditional stock exchange movements the whole chain suffers during turbulance and business goes back to normal when there is some predictability in the price.

    Did that help answer the pile o questions Matt?

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Freeman link=1204776460/30#31 date=1204954413
    Did that help answer the pile o questions Matt?
    Indeed it did, Andy, thanks! Of course, answers always generate more questions...

    It just seems an incredibly bad position for farmers, who are basically victims of the market. Is it possible for producers of specialty coffee to trade outside the commodities market altogether, but without relying on exclusive arrangements with individual importers (like particular roasters, who might guarantee to buy their whole crop)? In other words, can they negotiate prices with brokers or whoever they choose without reference to the commodities price. Wouldnt this also be beneficial to roasters by being based more on quality than market roller coasters? I might not have understood it correctly.

    matt
    p.s. whatever the future cost, that CS Espresso Wow I just got was...wow!

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    While at the Celebrate The Bean last weekend I went to one of the talks/presentations in the upstairs rooms by a guy (I fogrget his name) from ARC whos business is trading coffee beans on the world market and particular into the Australian market.

    It was very interesting and there was lots of information. In addition to the factors Andy mentions above, the guy from ARC showed graphs of the prices over recent months and discussed another major factor in the often large and sudden swings in coffee bean prices. Super Funds.... he was saying how Super Funds around the world now are the largest single group of investors and when they decide that things like gold and currency are at the top of the cycle and not going any further, or at risk of the bottom falling out quickly, then they pull LOTS of money out of those things, and dump it into commodities, including coffee. This large and sudden influx of funds can and does push the coffee prices up very quickly (days sometimes) by 30-40-50 points. The graphs he showed were dramatic also in the way the price drops again after these short spikes, literally overnight, when these investment funds decide its safe and/or profitable to go back to gold and currency.

  35. #35
    CoffeeSnobs Owner Andy's Avatar
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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    True Tim, and like other stocks, the rise in price attracts other investors and the price continues to climb... until they all realise no one can trade beans at those silly prices and the price slides down again with investors jumping off the roller coaster.

    Maybe if we all spread a rumour about cocoa prices we could move some of this new money out of coffee?
    :)

    It just seems an incredibly bad position for farmers, who are basically victims of the market.
    The same market the helps them can also hurt them... thats the reality of trading markets.

    Is it possible for producers of specialty coffee to trade outside the commodities market altogether, but without relying on exclusive arrangements with individual importers (like particular roasters, who might guarantee to buy their whole crop)?
    Most of the specialty coffee market is done outside the market, but still based on market pricing (well pricing above market prices).

    Some competition coffee (eg: CoE) is just an auction scenario where the prices paid have very little to do with market pricing and more to do with scores on a cupping scale.

    My advice to farmers is produce the worlds best coffees and you will be sheltered from the market prices!

    p.s. whatever the future cost, that CS Espresso Wow I just got was...wow!
    Excellent to hear, thanks (we think so too!)
    ;)

    PS: did you hear that coffee prices are about to crash and that cocoa is going to go break all records this year?

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Freeman link=1204776460/30#34 date=1204961363
    Most of the specialty coffee market is done outside the market, but still based on market pricing (well pricing above market prices)...[snip]...My advice to farmers is produce the worlds best coffees and you will be sheltered from the market prices!
    I still find it a bit hard to understand how prices for specialty coffee are both based on (commodity) market prices and yet "sheltered" from them because of quality (basically, I guess I just dont understand markets). However, I can see that we still need commodity coffee; if every farmer produced specialty coffee, the price for most would be as low as commodity coffee is now. Hooray for Vietnamese robusta!

    p.s. whatever the future cost, that CS Espresso Wow I just got was...wow!
    Excellent to hear, thanks (we think so too!);)
    And, of course, getting even better by the day!

    Well, Im off to invest my life savings in cocoa, as I hear from reputable sources that the price is about to go through the roof...

    matt

  37. #37
    CoffeeSnobs Owner Andy's Avatar
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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol


    After you put your life savings into cocoa the coffee bump headed south...
    ...and just like bank interest and petrol dont expect street prices to be corrected as quickly as they rose.

    ;)





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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Well, its nice to know that I had such a large impact! Now, can you show me a graph of cocoa prices? When Im rich Ill buy you a finca...

    matt

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    Hhhmmm....It appears to be very closely tied to the value of the US Dollar.


    Java "Surprise, surprise!" phile

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    Re: Coffee prices... like bank interest and petrol

    it seems inevitable to me that cocoa prices will also experience a rapid escalation based upon market trends

    sounds like a good commodity to invest in?

    p



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