Results 1 to 27 of 27

Thread: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

  1. #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    173

    Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Gene Cafe Coffee Roaster $850 - Free Beans Free Freight
    Not sure if anyone here follows the stock market….but one of the many simple but very powerful techniques for technical trading analysis is using a Trend Line. *Basic idea is, market movements usually move in one direction for a period of time. *This eventually forms a trend, when there are several waves, it can form a Trend Line.

    So as you can see in the attached picture, the Australia 200 cash index at the moment is traveling in a downward trend, and soon enough we’re approaching the trend line as drawn. *Most of the time, when price hits the Trend Line it usually bounces in the opposite direction… *Note: The US market also follows a very similar pattern.

    My point: Although our market has been recovering steady from the big fall, it is once again approaching the Trend Line. *Theoretically, we’re looking for another bounce downwards. *Question is, how big?

    Just a heads up before buying more stocks :)


  2. #2
    Sleep is overrated Thundergod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    10,496

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Dont follow as closely as I used to.
    I sold out 3 years ago.

    Never was into trend lines etc.
    I can be a bit over-cautious and miss some good newcomers but overall Ive only ever lost on one stock in over 20 years.

    Thanks for reminding me to see how its going. I need to keep it mind because of my super.

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    173

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 6A564B505A5B4C59515A3E0 link=1244813439/1#1 date=1244813936
    I need to keep it mind because of my super.
    Personally I think the previous crash is nothing major… once the credit card debts and the CDO markets collapses in the US (way too much leverage). *That will be when it’s too late to pull out the parachute.

    Cash / Fixed interest is safest in time like these I think….

  4. #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    224

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    The crash is major - but not for the stock market falls. The weak companies with too much leverage and poor structures are supposed to fail in a downturn.

    The problem has been the lack of available credit. Banks not lending to other banks and the like. Its not a retail problem, but the wholesale debt markets were completely dead for ages. Now they are recovering somewhat, but only because they are backed by government guarantees and government credit ratings.

    There are some types of structures we wont see for a while. The more complex CDOs for one. But your more standard RMBS will have to stay around if the non-bank sector is ever going to be able to compete with the banks in the home loan market. Dont confuse the US abs and cdo markets with our own. Similar structures, but different asset quality, credit enhancements and different laws.

    Plenty of value is still out there (I wouldnt be getting a margin loan to buy into it though ;) ). However, were likely to see a fixed income (bond market) recovery before the stock market picks up I think.

  5. #5
    Senior Member GregWormald's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    2,286

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Super???? mine has not been *super* for quite a while now. :(

    Greg

  6. #6
    Senior Member Lovey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    South Coast NSW
    Posts
    837

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    I read a funny quote on a stock market forum in relation to trying to pick the market.
    "People trying to pick the bottom will end up with a smelly finger!" ;D

  7. #7
    Sleep is overrated Thundergod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    10,496

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 302422223834332436363030510 link=1244813439/2#2 date=1244814666
    Cash / Fixed interest is safest in time like these I think….
    I moved most of mine to cash quite some time ago.

    I worked in the financial industry for 20 years before moving into process auditing.

  8. #8
    pingusam
    Guest

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    My investments (vanguard index fund) are down 0.4% since I put it in (about March).

  9. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    173

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 6C555F5F535053705D4848593C0 link=1244813439/3#3 date=1244848925
    The crash is major - but not for the stock market falls.The weak companies with too much leverage and poor structures are supposed to fail in a downturn.
    YES... but this will affects other partnering businesses and other stakeholders to a certain extent. *(lost of jobs -> driving down demands -> lost of other jobs -> .... )

    Quote Originally Posted by 6C555F5F535053705D4848593C0 link=1244813439/3#3 date=1244848925
    The problem has been the lack of available credit. Banks not lending to other banks and the like.Its not a retail problem, but the wholesale debt markets were completely dead for ages.Now they are recovering somewhat, but only because they are backed by government guarantees and government credit ratings.
    This is what pisses me off, the market needs to be operated in a free market model.. *let the weak one fail but the government kept intervening .!!$#%$

    I still believe the CDO/Credit card Debts are what eventually will bring down the house of card, including in Australia (and many other OECD countries) even though I agree with you the asset quality are not the same.

    I think there is an inverse relationship with the Bond market and the Stock market.... and Bond is usually a leading indicator??

  10. #10
    Senior Member flynnaus's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    3,988

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Anyone been watching the Ascent of Money series on ABC1 on Thursday nights. Last weeks one was particularly interesting explaining the Enron debacle

  11. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    2,601

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Im a day trader, and my head (and eyes) spin watching moving averages, stochastics, macds, direction movement indexes and a handful of other momentum indicators I use.

    Theres no doubt markets are over-bought, both on daily and weekly charts, and overdue for a pullback.....before marching upwards again as the monthlies and incomplete inverse head and shoulder patters indicate.

    Being short-term oriented, I want good volatility and liquidity in stocks.... the longer term trend does not really matter .

  12. #12
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    224

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 22283D2A2A253137440 link=1244813439/9#9 date=1244945743
    Anyone been watching the Ascent of Money series on ABC1 on Thursday nights. Last weeks one was particularly interesting explaining the Enron debacle
    Yeah Ive watched it - Its an interesting doco.

  13. #13
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    North Rothbury, NSW
    Posts
    1,104

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    SPL.G -

    That chart looks like it is trending down, rather than a correction.

    It also looks like it is nearing the end of the fourth wave. Wave 1 clearly has 5 waves in it, wave 3 is commensurate length of wave 1 to be called wave 3 and also has a sub group of 5, while 2 and 4 clearly are A,B,C 3 wave corrections.

    So I think you are looking for wave 5 before a bigger correction up is seen. How far down? Measure from the expected tangent point with your trend line something equidistant with wave 1 and then work some fibonacci numbers around that to see where the temporary landing will be.

    Chris

  14. #14
    pingusam
    Guest

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Just remember that you have to trade on the right side of the graph, not the left ;)

  15. #15
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    2,601

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    This is my take of the XJO, daily chart with target around 4400, after a minor retrace which appears to be underway now. The yellow 50 day simple moving average may deflect from the 200 day (red)....but as I say, the pullback should not be major before the uptrend is resumed.

    [img][/img]

  16. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    173

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 68627760606F7B7D0E0 link=1244813439/9#9 date=1244945743
    Anyone been watching the Ascent of Money series on ABC1 on Thursday nights. Last weeks one was particularly interesting explaining the Enron debacle *
    Care to share the details?

    Quote Originally Posted by 7C616C7B7D7A610E0 link=1244813439/10#10 date=1244984317
    Being short-term oriented, I want good volatility and liquidity in stocks.... the longer term trend does not really matter . *
    What market do you trade?

    I had to stop day trading (part time) for almost a year now.... the volatility is too much for me... I traded the S&P500 E-mini, so marginal increase in volatility = huge risk increase for me as the contract value is pretty big, so I cannot really cut down on contract size to reduce the risk (Its close to the minimal already I had a laugh). *The market has calmed down quite a lot now, might get back in soon.

    Quote Originally Posted by 6D657D776A0E0 link=1244813439/12#12 date=1245027297
    So I think you are looking for wave 5 before a bigger correction up is seen. *
    I never got into counting waves.. ... *:P

  17. #17
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    173

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 35282532343328470 link=1244813439/14#14 date=1245057232
    This is my take of the XJO
    I think youve answered my previous question.. *I must have been typing when you posted the msg. :D

  18. #18
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    2,601

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    SPL.G, I keep a close eye on the XJO and the USs SPX, but I dont trade indices....

    I prefer real stocks. Obviously ones with high liquidity and high volatility, such as Macquarie bank and half a dozen others.

    I aim to open and close the trade same day, perhaps hold overnight or two at most, so, quick scalping is my method.


  19. #19
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    North Rothbury, NSW
    Posts
    1,104

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 637771716B67607765656363020 link=1244813439/15#15 date=1245057366
    I never got into counting waves.. ... *:P

    Maybe you should. You are looking at wave 4. You also asked where it is heading.

    Trend lines are trend lines, they get broken and retracements below seen and then you find a new trendline. What are you looking? Short, mid long term?

    Chris

    ...that is a pretty classic formation...

    ps... chaos theory


  20. #20
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    173

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 484058524F2B0 link=1244813439/18#18 date=1245068905
    Maybe you should. You are looking at wave 4. You also asked where it is heading.

    Trend lines are trend lines, they get broken and retracements below seen and then you find a new trendline. What are you looking? Short, mid long term?
    I look at 3 minutes charts on the indices. *I guess my time frame is too fast to be counting waves. :) *Supply/Demand/Support/Resistance is all that needed.

    Umm.. I was asking where its heading to kick off further discussion about the market in general. *My believe is this market will fall (from my previous research in various debts markets).... kaput.. Hopefully I am wrong! *But obviously no one should form opinion when trading.

    I think we can leave the trading technicality to a Trading Site. Lets get back to Coffee.. I had a laugh.

  21. #21
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    North Rothbury, NSW
    Posts
    1,104

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    I think you are right that it will fall, but looking at your chart there will be a fall, followed by a substantive corrective bounce and then fall again.

    My comment about trend lines is that on indices, just like currencies, the market will always hunt out stops and then resume normal programming. That is why you see trend lines and point & figure charts getting anomalies.

    I have always looked from a technical perspective, but that is just me.

    We can talk about this here anyway, its the off topic section. ;)

  22. #22
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    1,520

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    IMO

    myself like many sheep may have missed the best time to buy we may see for a long time. what do they say about "blood in the streets".......

    I think a lot of fear has passed and a "look its coming good" feeling is starting to creep in, yes cdos etc etc will give some trouble but i think much has alredy been factored in.

    some of the best stocks on the ASX where cheap..... sadly i did not press "BUY" hard enough or for long enough (i am a swing trader and LTholder)

    borrowing is again cheap (just tight) and i think this will pave the way to a new upward LT trend sooner than later.

    of course some bouncing is expected in the near term.....

    DYOR and happy trading

  23. #23
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    173

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 4E465E54492D0 link=1244813439/20#20 date=1245106666
    the market will always hunt out stops and then resume normal programming.
    Thats exactly why I believe in support/resistance/supply/demand...

  24. #24
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    North Rothbury, NSW
    Posts
    1,104

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 4C585E5E44484F584A4A4C4C2D0 link=1244813439/22#22 date=1245161770
    Quote Originally Posted by 4E465E54492D0 link=1244813439/20#20 date=1245106666
    the market will always hunt out stops and then resume normal programming.
    Thats exactly why I believe in support/resistance/supply/demand...
    And if you are not careful/generous with your stop loss you will get taken out time and time again, even when you were positioned correctly. That is what hunting the stops is - support and resistancce are irrelevant, liquidity is the issue.

    Seen it more times than I care to remember...

  25. #25
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    173

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 545C444E53370 link=1244813439/23#23 date=1245196252
    And if you are not careful/generous with your stop loss you will get taken out time and time again, even when you were positioned correctly. That is what hunting the stops is - support and resistancce are irrelevant, liquidity is the issue.

    Seen it more times than I care to remember... *
    This is why I also mentioned supply/demand. *When approaching the support / resistance, you can easily see if it would break by looking at the volume information. *This information represents the supply and demand of the market.. ie. tape reading.

    There is no one solution fits all when it comes to trading. *So whatever works for you, that’s good and good for you!... I know my method works for me, until the recent spiked in volatility. *I wont be changing my ways of doing things just because the market change (temporary I hope). *I know a good trader is ones that is able to adapt, but in order for me to adapt to this highly volatile market, I must increase my RISK :-[, which Im not interested.... hence Im taking a break from the market until things are back in order. *The market will always be there ... tomorrow.. next year.. or in 10 years time..., but if I goes broke, I won’t be able to participate .. :P

  26. #26
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    North Rothbury, NSW
    Posts
    1,104

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    Quote Originally Posted by 554147475D51564153535555340 link=1244813439/24#24 date=1245202262

    There is no one solution fits all when it comes to trading. *So whatever works for you, that’s good and good for you!... I know my method works for me, until the recent spiked in volatility. *
    Yeah fair enough...

    I dont trade.

  27. #27
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    125

    Re: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?

    q: Australia Stock market… where is it heading?
    a: out for a coffee. back in 5 minutes.



Similar Threads

  1. Behmor Roasters are in stock right now!
    By Andy in forum General News
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 24th July 2010, 01:43 AM
  2. Heading to Melbourne again
    By yeeza in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 18th December 2008, 10:18 PM
  3. Stock colours of CS pages
    By scooter in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 29th May 2008, 09:26 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •